The surge in Brent crude oil prices, which have now reached $108 per barrel, has placed immense pressure on OMCs. Despite these challenges, petrol and diesel prices have remained stable since April 2022, largely due to government interventions. However, sources indicate that the government believes a price adjustment is unavoidable due to the financial strain on OMCs.

Key facts:

• OMCs are currently losing ₹24 per litre on petrol and ₹30 per litre on diesel.
• Brent crude oil prices have reached $108 per barrel.
• Petrol and diesel prices in India are likely to increase by ₹2 to ₹4 per litre soon.
• The average price of a 19-kg LPG cylinder in Delhi has risen to ₹3,071.50.

Furthermore, LPG consumption in India has shown a significant decline of 16.16% in April 2026, falling to 2.2 million tonnes. This decrease may be linked to rising costs impacting household budgets amid ongoing inflationary pressures.

The government previously reduced excise duty by ₹10 per litre, resulting in a revenue loss of approximately ₹1.7 lakh crore annually. This reduction aimed to cushion consumers from the impact of rising global oil prices but has further strained OMC finances. A senior official stated, “We cannot keep prices unchanged when there are supply issues. At some point, we have to make adjustments according to market conditions.”

Looking ahead, the government is expected to announce a price increase for petrol and diesel soon after the election results are finalized. The exact timing and magnitude of these increases remain uncertain; however, it is clear that OMCs face mounting pressures that could lead to further adjustments in fuel pricing.

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Before the recent changes, the landscape of petrol and diesel pricing in India was characterized by a high excise duty that significantly impacted consumers. The excise duty on petrol stood at Rs 13 per litre, while diesel was taxed at Rs 10 per litre. These rates were a part of the government’s strategy to manage revenue from fuel sales amid fluctuating global crude prices. The expectation was that these high duties would remain in place, especially as international crude prices hovered around $70 per barrel, providing a buffer for the government’s fiscal policies.

However, the situation took a decisive turn on March 27, 2026, when the government announced a substantial cut in excise duties. The excise duty on petrol was slashed by Rs 10 per litre, bringing it down to Rs 3 per litre, while the duty on diesel was completely eliminated, dropping to zero from Rs 10. This move was unexpected and came in response to a surge in international crude prices, which had risen sharply to nearly $122 per barrel. The government’s decision reflects a critical moment where it chose to intervene directly in the fuel pricing mechanism.

The immediate effects of this excise duty cut are multifaceted. While the reduction in excise duties is expected to alleviate some pressure on consumers, it is also projected to result in a significant revenue loss for the government, estimated at INR 1.75 lakh crore annually. This loss raises questions about how the government will balance its budget in light of reduced income from fuel taxes. Oil marketing companies, which have been grappling with substantial losses—around Rs 24 per litre on petrol and Rs 30 per litre on diesel—are now in a precarious position. Despite the duty cuts, retail pump prices remained unchanged, indicating that the benefits of the excise cut may not be immediately passed on to consumers.

Experts have weighed in on the implications of this policy shift. Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri noted, “The government faced a choice between passing on the full impact to consumers or absorbing part of the shock.” This statement underscores the delicate balance the government is attempting to strike between consumer protection and fiscal responsibility. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman added, “The reduction in excise duty will provide protection to consumers from rise in prices,” suggesting that the government is keen to shield the public from the full brunt of rising global oil prices.

However, the broader context reveals that while the excise duty cut may provide some relief, it does not necessarily equate to lower fuel prices at the pump. An anonymous expert commented, “The cut may not make fuel cheaper, but it could stop prices from rising further at a time of global uncertainty.” This perspective highlights the complexity of the fuel pricing mechanism, where global market dynamics play a crucial role in determining retail prices.

Furthermore, the government’s imposition of export duties—INR 21.5 per litre on diesel and INR 29.5 per litre on aviation turbine fuel (ATF)—adds another layer of complexity to the situation. These export duties are aimed at regulating domestic supply and ensuring that local consumers are prioritized over international markets. Yet, the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen, particularly as oil companies navigate their financial losses while trying to maintain a stable supply.

As the dust settles on this significant policy change, uncertainties linger regarding the speed at which oil marketing companies will adjust their pricing strategies. Details remain unconfirmed regarding how quickly the benefits of the excise duty cut will be reflected in retail prices. Additionally, the long-term impact of this excise duty cut on fuel pricing remains uncertain, raising questions about the sustainability of such fiscal measures in the face of ongoing global economic challenges.

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