The US-Iran war has resulted in a physical chokepoint, taking offline part of the supply of oil and gas due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This critical waterway is responsible for about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, making its accessibility vital for energy markets worldwide.

In a dramatic turn of events, Brent crude futures slumped 14.43% to hit an intraday low of $96 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures tanked 14.25% to reach an intraday low of $84.23 per barrel. This plunge comes on the heels of President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US would halt military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

Trump stated, “I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” He further indicated that military actions would be postponed for five days, contingent upon the success of ongoing discussions.

Despite the temporary reprieve, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has assessed that the current episode represents the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed from 20 million barrels per day to a trickle, exacerbating fears of a prolonged conflict.

Saudi Arabia has forecasted that if the war continues beyond April, oil prices could skyrocket to $180 per barrel. Similarly, Qatar’s Energy Minister warned that Brent could reach $150 if disruptions persist.

The war has already damaged major energy facilities in the Gulf and nearly halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Observers note that the longer the conflict continues and the free transit through the strait remains disrupted, the longer oil and gas prices will remain elevated.

As the situation develops, the US has been actively trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for energy shipments, but uncertainties remain regarding the stability of the region.

With Brent crude prices up around 46% so far this month, the volatility in the market is palpable. The implications of these developments will likely reverberate through the global economy, affecting everything from consumer prices to energy policy decisions.

Details remain unconfirmed as stakeholders await further updates from the ongoing negotiations and military assessments in the region.

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On March 8, 2026, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly apologized to neighboring countries for recent military strikes that have heightened tensions in the region. In a statement, Pezeshkian emphasized, “I apologise to the neighbouring countries. We have no intention of invading other countries.” This apology comes amidst a backdrop of escalating conflict, particularly involving US and Israeli military actions against Iranian targets.

Immediate Circumstances

Pezeshkian’s remarks were made following a series of retaliatory strikes that have resulted in significant casualties. Reports indicate that 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed in US-Israeli air strikes, while the US Central Command confirmed over 3,000 strikes on targets inside Iran within the first week of Operation Epic Fury. The military conflict has now been ongoing for eight days, with casualties reported not only in Iran but also in Lebanon and Israel.

The Iranian leadership is currently navigating a power-sharing structure following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This transitional phase has seen hardline factions within the government exert significant influence over military strategy. Iran’s judiciary chief, Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, criticized Pezeshkian’s apology, suggesting that the ongoing retaliatory strikes would continue despite the president’s conciliatory tone. Furthermore, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, stated that the presence of US bases in the region prevents peace, reflecting the broader geopolitical tensions at play.

Reactions and Backlash

Pezeshkian’s statement was partially amended following backlash from hardliners who viewed the apology as a sign of weakness. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have claimed responsibility for striking a US air combat center at Al Dhafra Air Base, indicating that military responses will persist despite diplomatic overtures. Pezeshkian also dismissed former President Donald Trump’s demand for unconditional surrender as a “dream that they should take to their grave,” underscoring the ongoing animosity between Iran and the US.

Casualties and Impact

The conflict has resulted in significant casualties across the region, with reports indicating 290 casualties in Lebanon and 11 in Israel due to the ongoing military actions. Additionally, four foreign nationals have been killed in the UAE since the war began. These figures highlight the extensive human cost of the conflict and the complexities of the regional power dynamics.

As the situation continues to evolve, the Iranian leadership faces the challenge of balancing military responses with diplomatic efforts. The ongoing conflict, influenced by hardline factions and external pressures, raises questions about the future of regional stability. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the potential for further escalations or peace negotiations as the Iranian government navigates this turbulent landscape.

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