The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to dash Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s hopes of securing a third consecutive term in Kerala, according to exit polls predicting a significant shift in the state’s political landscape.
As the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections approach, exit polls indicate that the UDF could secure between 70 and 75 seats, while the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to obtain around 60 to 65 seats. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), on the other hand, may only achieve approximately 3 to 5 seats.
The majority mark in the Kerala Assembly stands at 71 seats, and with a total of 140 seats available, this election is particularly critical for both major parties. The voter turnout recorded was 78.27%, highlighting significant public engagement in this electoral process.
The UDF’s potential victory would mark a notable change from the historic verdict of the 2021 polls, when the LDF ended Kerala’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments every five years. The current political climate suggests that voters are seeking alternatives to the incumbent government.
According to sources, while exit polls offer insights based on surveys conducted prior to election day, they can be subject to inaccuracies. In this context, one source remarked, “Exit polls are just predictions based on surveys and can turn out to be wrong on the result day (May 4).” Thus, stakeholders remain cautious as they await official results.
This election cycle has seen heightened competition between the UDF and LDF as both parties prepare for an intense battle for control over Kerala’s governance. The UDF aims not only for victory but also seeks to address key issues raised by constituents during their campaign.
The upcoming days will be pivotal as results are expected shortly after polling concludes. Analysts will closely monitor how these electoral outcomes may reshape political alliances moving forward.
